Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy
This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology i...
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Beteiligte: | ; |
Medienart: | Elektronisch Aufsatz |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Veröffentlicht: |
1998
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In: |
OR insight
Jahr: 1998, Band: 11, Seiten: 3-9 |
Online-Zugang: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
Journals Online & Print: | |
Verfügbarkeit prüfen: | HBZ Gateway |
Zusammenfassung: | This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison. |
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ISSN: | 1759-0477 |
DOI: | 10.1057/ori.1998.2 |