Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy

This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology i...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Grove, Peter (Author) ; MacLeod, John (Author) ; Godfrey, David (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 1998
In: OR insight
Year: 1998, Volume: 11, Pages: 3-9
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Summary:This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison.
ISSN:1759-0477
DOI:10.1057/ori.1998.2