The global law of terror organization lifespan
The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in dif...
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| Medienart: | Elektronisch Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2020
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| In: |
Terrorism and political violence
Jahr: 2020, Band: 32, Heft: 8, Seiten: 1636-1665 |
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Volltext (Resolving-System) Volltext (Verlag) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Lade...
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| Verfügbarkeit prüfen: | HBZ Gateway |
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| Zusammenfassung: | The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in different contexts of periods, geographical locations, ideologies, etc. The data as a whole, as well as its subpopulations, seem to emerge from an exponential distribution, which is formulated as a mathematical model. This model enables the prediction of TOs’ global population decay rate. The findings were obtained by introducing a novel procedure, which formulates and validates this mathematical law for discrete empirical data. We suggest that human behavior generating informational cascades and a positive feedback loop, which influence the number of core members in a TO, may be the source of this global pattern. |
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| Beschreibung: | Gesehen am 17.01.2023 Published online: 08 Aug 2018 |
| Physische Details: | Diagramme |
| ISSN: | 1556-1836 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/09546553.2018.1498787 |
