The global law of terror organization lifespan

The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in dif...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Goldman, Shlomo Ogen (Author)
Contributors: Bar, Leah
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2020
In: Terrorism and political violence
Year: 2020, Volume: 32, Issue: 8, Pages: 1636-1665
Online Access: Volltext (Resolving-System)
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Keywords:
Terror organizations
life span
Distribution
Longevity
Survival
Description
Summary:The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in different contexts of periods, geographical locations, ideologies, etc. The data as a whole, as well as its subpopulations, seem to emerge from an exponential distribution, which is formulated as a mathematical model. This model enables the prediction of TOs’ global population decay rate. The findings were obtained by introducing a novel procedure, which formulates and validates this mathematical law for discrete empirical data. We suggest that human behavior generating informational cascades and a positive feedback loop, which influence the number of core members in a TO, may be the source of this global pattern.
Item Description:Gesehen am 17.01.2023
Published online: 08 Aug 2018
Physical Description:Diagramme
ISSN:1556-1836
DOI:10.1080/09546553.2018.1498787