Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: interrogation tactics and inverse probability

False confession wrongful convictions (FCWCs) are a serious failure of the criminal justice system. Although scholars have identified interrogation tactics thought to elevate this risk, existing research rarely estimates the population-level probability that legally permissible methods will produce...

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VerfasserInnen: Mourtgos, Scott M. (Verfasst von) ; Adams, Ian T. (Verfasst von)
Medienart: Elektronisch Aufsatz
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: 2026
In: Journal of criminal justice
Jahr: 2026, Band: 103, Seiten: 1-12
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Schlagwörter:
False confessions
Wrongful convictions
Police Interrogation
Bayesian simulation
Criminal Justice Policy
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:False confession wrongful convictions (FCWCs) are a serious failure of the criminal justice system. Although scholars have identified interrogation tactics thought to elevate this risk, existing research rarely estimates the population-level probability that legally permissible methods will produce an FCWC. Instead, inference relies on outcome-selected case series and laboratory diagnosticity ratios that ignore base rates and the far larger universe of interrogations without false confessions. This article offers a methodological recalibration. We formalize the outcome-selection problem and apply inverse probability logic to derive posterior FCWC risk integrating base rates, sensitivity, and specificity. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we synthesize available empirical evidence across a wide parameter space. Across these specifications, median posterior estimates of the probability of a false confession wrongful conviction associated with lawful interrogation tactics cluster near 1 %. We conclude by introducing an Acceptability Curve that clarifies how normative judgments about tolerable error shape policy conclusions.
Beschreibung:Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 11-12
Physische Details:Illustrationen
ISSN:0047-2352
DOI:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2026.102600