Normative Data, Predictive Validity, and Factor Structure of a Fourth-Generation Risk Assessment Tool (ORAC-PCQ) in a Population of Adjudicated Individuals Serving Short Sentences in the Province of Québec (Canada)
This study examines the psychometric properties of the ORAC-PCQ, a fourth-generation actuarial tool designed to assess recidivism risk and criminogenic needs among individuals serving short sentences in Quebec. The instrument consists of three sections: Sociocriminological Profile (eight items), Cri...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2026
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| In: |
Criminal justice and behavior
Year: 2026, Volume: 53, Issue: 2, Pages: 159-180 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (kostenfrei) |
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
| Summary: | This study examines the psychometric properties of the ORAC-PCQ, a fourth-generation actuarial tool designed to assess recidivism risk and criminogenic needs among individuals serving short sentences in Quebec. The instrument consists of three sections: Sociocriminological Profile (eight items), Criminogenic Needs (16 items), and Clinical Information (26 unscored items). Based on a sample of 14,320 individuals, we report normative data, optimal cutoff scores, and predictive validity across four subgroups defined by gender and Indigenous status. The ORAC-PCQ demonstrated satisfactory overall predictive accuracy (AUC = .75), with slightly higher values for non-Indigenous individuals and women. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed a stable four-factor structure—Criminal Background, Substance Abuse, Interpersonal Conflicts, and Employment Problems—across all groups, supporting structural validity and measurement invariance. These findings provide initial evidence of both construct and predictive validity for a new risk assessment tool specifically tailored to short-sentence populations. |
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| ISSN: | 1552-3594 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/00938548251372071 |
