The predictive validity of the post-conviction risk assessment among federal offenders

In the U.S. federal court system, the Probation and Pretrial Services Office (PPSO) uses a tool known as the Post-Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) to assess offender risk and identify challenges offenders face while under supervision. This article evaluates the PCRA and its components to determine...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Luallen, Jeremy (Author)
Contributors: Radakrishnan, Sharmini ; Rhodes, William
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2016
In: Criminal justice and behavior
Year: 2016, Volume: 43, Issue: 9, Pages: 1173-1189
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Keywords:
PCRA
federal probation
Risk assessment
Supervision
Validation
Description
Summary:In the U.S. federal court system, the Probation and Pretrial Services Office (PPSO) uses a tool known as the Post-Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) to assess offender risk and identify challenges offenders face while under supervision. This article evaluates the PCRA and its components to determine its usefulness as a predictive tool for evaluating risk. Overall, we find that the PCRA is an effective tool for classifying offenders as it is currently designed, achieving a level of predictive validity comparable with its competitors. Notably, we also find that the PCRA effectively differentiates offenders early in supervision terms, and that its predictive power diminishes as time under supervision lengthens. Finally, the strength of PCRA classification appears to vary with offense type. The PCRA performs well for some offenses including drug, violent, and property offenses, but provides less utility in reliably predicting less common offenses.
ISSN:1552-3594
DOI:10.1177/0093854816650481