| Summary: | Home Office statistics show a continuing decline in the rape conviction rate over the last three decades, with the most recent figures at an all time low of just over 5 per cent. A number of reforms have been put in place but are yet to deliver the hoped for outcomes. Attrition is a complex, multi-factorial process, meaning that successful policy and practice interventions must be informed by analysis of the issues operating at multiple levels of the criminal justice process. Rape in the 21st Century: Old Patterns, New Behaviours and Emerging Trends, 2000-2002 investigated whether particular combinations of factors might be associated with being targeted for sexual assault, as well as specific layers of attrition, including victimisation/targeting, reporting to the police and case outcomes. Using regression analysis, whether and how explicitly stereotypical notions about rape are predictive of attrition was also explored. The project was based on an existing dataset of 3,527 cases reported to three sexual assault referral centres (SARCs) and three police comparison sites without access to a SARC between late 2000 and end 2002. Stereotypical views about rape were found to affect decision making particularly at the earliest stages of the process, namely reporting and the police investigation, although they were less influential than anticipated for the small proportion of cases that reached court. The findings also suggest that victim vulnerabilities play a crucial role in attrition, particularly where: victims are aged under 18; the rape takes place in the context of domestic violence; the rape is alcohol related; and mental health issues are present. Making previous allegations also appears to be significant. These factors influence not only decisions by complainants to withdraw allegations but also how police conduct the investigation.
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