Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy

This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Grove, Peter (Autor) ; MacLeod, John (Autor) ; Godfrey, David (Autor)
Tipo de documento: Electrónico Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 1998
En: OR insight
Año: 1998, Volumen: 11, Páginas: 3-9
Acceso en línea: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Verificar disponibilidad: HBZ Gateway
Descripción
Sumario:This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison.
ISSN:1759-0477
DOI:10.1057/ori.1998.2