Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy

This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology i...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
VerfasserInnen: Grove, Peter (Verfasst von) ; MacLeod, John (Verfasst von) ; Godfrey, David (Verfasst von)
Medienart: Elektronisch Aufsatz
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: 1998
In: OR insight
Jahr: 1998, Band: 11, Seiten: 3-9
Online-Zugang: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Verfügbarkeit prüfen: HBZ Gateway
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison.
ISSN:1759-0477
DOI:10.1057/ori.1998.2