Modelling recorded crime: a full search for cointegrated models
A modelgenerator is developed that searches for cointegrated models among a potentially large group of candidate models. The generator employs the first step of the Engle-Granger procedure and orders cointegrated models according to the information criterions AIC and BIC. Assisted by the generator,...
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| Medienart: | Elektronisch Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2008
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| In: | Jahr: 2008 |
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Volltext (kostenfrei) |
| Verfügbarkeit prüfen: | HBZ Gateway |
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| Zusammenfassung: | A modelgenerator is developed that searches for cointegrated models among a potentially large group of candidate models. The generator employs the first step of the Engle-Granger procedure and orders cointegrated models according to the information criterions AIC and BIC. Assisted by the generator, a cointegrated relation is established between recorded violent crime in the Netherlands, the number of males aged 15-25 years (split into Western and non-Western background) and deflated consumption. In-sample forecasts reveal that the cointegrated model outperforms the best short-run models.Comment: 6 pages including 1 figure and 4 tables; typos corrected, footnotes change |
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