Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents

We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violen...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Neller, Daniel J. (Autor)
Otros Autores: Healy, Timothy C. ; Dao, Tam K. ; Meyer, Shannon ; Barefoot, Danielle B.
Tipo de documento: Electrónico Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2021
En: Criminal justice and behavior
Año: 2021, Volumen: 48, Número: 12, Páginas: 1770-1787
Acceso en línea: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Palabras clave:
HOBAS
Risk assessment
Violence prediction
Negotiation
Crisis
barricade
hostage
Descripción
Sumario:We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.
ISSN:1552-3594
DOI:10.1177/00938548211017926