Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

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Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, l...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Johnson, Shane D. 1971- (Author)
Contributors: Bernasco, Wim 1961- ; Bowers, Kate 1972- ; Elffers, H. 1948- ; Ratcliffe, Jerry ; Rengert, George ; Townsley, Michael
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2007
In: Journal of quantitative criminology
Year: 2007, Volume: 23, Issue: 3, Pages: 201-219
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Keywords:
Monte-Carlo simulation
Cross national comparison
Space–time clustering
Burglary risk
Description
Summary:Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.
ISSN:1573-7799
DOI:10.1007/s10940-007-9025-3