Predicting risk for early police arrest

A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in hi...

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1. VerfasserIn: Patterson, Gerald R. 1926- (VerfasserIn)
Beteiligte: Crosby, L. ; Vuchinich, S.
Medienart: Elektronisch Aufsatz
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: 1992
In: Journal of quantitative criminology
Jahr: 1992, Band: 8, Heft: 4, Seiten: 335-355
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520 |a A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in high-crime areas of a mediumsized metropolitan area. Multiagent/multimethod definitions for both the family process and the antisocial trait concepts defined the latent constructs. Official records of police contacts were collected during the ensuing 5 years. The data for the hazard rates showed that risk for police arrest varied significantly as a function of the child's age. A continuous time regression analysis showed that most of the individual family process constructs and the antisocial trait construct were significantly related to an altered risk for police contacts. A multiple regression analysis showed a similar effect in predicting age at onset. In keeping with the hypotheses in both analyses, when all variables were entered simultaneously the contributions of the family process constructs were nonsignificant; only the contributions for the trait score and social disadvantage remained significant. The more antisocial the child, the greater the risk for early arrest. 
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