Predicting risk for early police arrest
A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in hi...
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| Contributors: | ; |
| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
1992
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| In: |
Journal of quantitative criminology
Year: 1992, Volume: 8, Issue: 4, Pages: 335-355 |
| Online Access: |
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| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
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| Summary: | A model designed to predict early arrest is presented. Family process variables were hypothesized to be indirectly related; a childhood measure of an antisocial trait was assumed to be directly related to risk for early onset. Longitudinal data were collected for two cohorts of families living in high-crime areas of a mediumsized metropolitan area. Multiagent/multimethod definitions for both the family process and the antisocial trait concepts defined the latent constructs. Official records of police contacts were collected during the ensuing 5 years. The data for the hazard rates showed that risk for police arrest varied significantly as a function of the child's age. A continuous time regression analysis showed that most of the individual family process constructs and the antisocial trait construct were significantly related to an altered risk for police contacts. A multiple regression analysis showed a similar effect in predicting age at onset. In keeping with the hypotheses in both analyses, when all variables were entered simultaneously the contributions of the family process constructs were nonsignificant; only the contributions for the trait score and social disadvantage remained significant. The more antisocial the child, the greater the risk for early arrest. |
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| ISSN: | 1573-7799 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/BF01093639 |