Better Practices in the Development and Validation of Recidivism Risk Assessments: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4:
This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods w...
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| In: |
Criminal justice policy review
Year: 2019, Volume: 30, Issue: 4, Pages: 538-564 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (Resolving-System) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
| Summary: | This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending. |
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| ISSN: | 1552-3586 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0887403417718608 |
