Punishment and Economic Inequality: Estimating Short-Term and Long-Term Equilibrium Relationships

During the post-World War II (WWII) period, U.S. prison populations and economic inequality have historically shared a common trend. Both indexes were low and fairly stable until the early 1970s, but afterward, they rose significantly. In the context of the prison boom and high economic inequality,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kim, Dae Young 1968- (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2017
In: Criminal justice policy review
Year: 2017, Volume: 28, Issue: 7, Pages: 641-668
Online Access: Volltext (Resolving-System)
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Keywords:
Prison admissions
Economic inequality
Time-series analysis
Co-integration
Error-correction model (ECM)
Description
Summary:During the post-World War II (WWII) period, U.S. prison populations and economic inequality have historically shared a common trend. Both indexes were low and fairly stable until the early 1970s, but afterward, they rose significantly. In the context of the prison boom and high economic inequality, such a meaningful coincidence that both variables follow the same trend calls for the present study examining their historical long-term relationship. With annual national data from 1950-2010, this study uses time-series regression techniques within a co-integration and error-correction framework. Although estimated results are sensitive to the model specification used in parameter estimation, there are in general both short-term and long-term equilibrium relationships between the two variables. Finally, this study concludes with a discussion of implications for policy development and future research.
ISSN:1552-3586
DOI:10.1177/0887403415608491