Beyond Dustbowl Empiricism: The Need for Theory in Recidivism Prediction Research and Its Potential Realization in Causal Mediation Analysis
In this article, I argue that for risk/recidivism research to achieve its full potential, it must continue to grow beyond its empirical roots, a process that began more than 20 years ago. The theoretical model highlighted in the current article can explain one of the brute facts of criminology: name...
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
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[2017]
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| In: |
Criminal justice and behavior
Year: 2017, Volume: 44, Issue: 1, Pages: 40-58 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (Resolving-System) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
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| Summary: | In this article, I argue that for risk/recidivism research to achieve its full potential, it must continue to grow beyond its empirical roots, a process that began more than 20 years ago. The theoretical model highlighted in the current article can explain one of the brute facts of criminology: namely, that past offending is one of the best predictors of future offending. By understanding how cognitive variables mediate the past crime-future crime relationship, we improve our ability to more effectively manage recidivism risk. Toward this end, six considerations for mediation analysis are discussed: variable selection, model creation, research design, data analysis, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. An illustrative example using attitude toward fighting as a mediator of the past physical aggression → future physical aggression relationship is presented. |
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| ISSN: | 1552-3594 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0093854816677566 |