Have the England and Wales guidelines affected sentencing severity?: an empirical analysis using a scale of severity and time-series analyses

Sentence severity has increased in England and Wales in recent years. The causes of the increase remain unclear. One possible explanation relates to the introduction of sentencing guidelines, which seem to coincide in time with the increase in sentence severity. To date, investigations of this hypot...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Pina-Sánchez, Jose (Author)
Contributors: Gosling, John Paul ; Chung, Hye-In
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2019
In: The British journal of criminology
Year: 2019, Volume: 59, Issue: 4, Pages: 979-1001
Online Access: Volltext (Publisher)
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Keywords:
Sentencing
Severity
Guidelines
Time-series
Thurstone, Louis Leon
Strafzumessung
Richtlinien
Zeitreihen-Analyse
Zeitreihendaten
Description
Summary:Sentence severity has increased in England and Wales in recent years. The causes of the increase remain unclear. One possible explanation relates to the introduction of sentencing guidelines, which seem to coincide in time with the increase in sentence severity. To date, investigations of this hypothesis have been limited to simple exploratory analyses or to specific offences. We use a new scale of sentence severity—developed using Thurstone scaling and the participation of 21 magistrates—and time-series modelling to explore whether a causal effect can be attributed to seven different guidelines. We corroborate the existence of an increase in sentence severity; however, we do not find conclusive evidence pointing at the guidelines having caused it.
ISSN:1464-3529
DOI:10.1093/bjc/azz005