Comparing Predictive Validity of JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪: with Sexually Abusive Youth in Long-Term Residential Custody

This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Rasmussen, Lucinda A. Lee (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2018
In: International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology
Year: 2018, Volume: 62, Issue: 10, Pages: 2937-2953
Online Access: Volltext (Verlag)
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Keywords:
Risk assessment
Adolescent sex offenders
Juvenile sex offenders
Residential care
Recidivism
Jugendliche Sexualtäter
Jugendliche Sexualstraftäter
Rückfälligkeit
Risikoeinschätzung
Description
Summary:This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study sample consisted of 129 male adjudicated adolescents housed in a secured residential treatment facility for sexually abusive youth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that MEGA♪ Risk Scale was mildly predictive of sexual recidivism over a 6-year period (mean follow-up = 15.6 months)—area under the curve (AUC) = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.52, 0.82]; p < .015. JSORRAT-II was not predictive (AUC = .57; 95% CI = [0.42, 0.72]; p < .297). The study contributes to scant literature on the most contemporary, statistically robust risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth.
ISSN:1552-6933
DOI:10.1177/0306624X17726550