Relationship between prison length of stay and recidivism: a study using regression discontinuity and instrumental variables with multiple break points

In this study, we use both a regression discontinuity design and an instrumental variable identification strategy to examine the relationship between prison length of stay and recidivism among a large sample of federal offenders. We capitalize on the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines structure to apply the...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Rhodes, William (Author) ; Gaes, Gerald G. 1947- (Author) ; Kling, Ryan (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2018
In: Criminology & public policy
Year: 2018, Volume: 17, Issue: 3, Pages: 731-769
Online Access: Volltext (Verlag)
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Keywords:
Time served
Recidivism
Length of stay
Regression discontinuity
Instrumental variable
Rückfälligkeit
Gefängnisaufenthalt
Dauer der Freiheitsstrafe
Description
Summary:In this study, we use both a regression discontinuity design and an instrumental variable identification strategy to examine the relationship between prison length of stay and recidivism among a large sample of federal offenders. We capitalize on the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines structure to apply these strong inference, quasi‐experimental approaches. We find that average length of stay can be reduced by 7.5 months with a small impact on recidivism. We also examine whether there is treatment heterogeneity. We find that length‐of‐stay effects do not vary by criminal history, offense seriousness, sex, race, and education level.
ISSN:1745-9133
DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12382