The Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Cannabis Regulation in South America

ObjectivesDrug prohibition plays a pivotal role in shaping modern criminal markets and justice systems, significantly contributing to the prison populations of Western countries. The drug trade fuels global networks of corruption and violence, especially in transit countries. This study examines how...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: de Assis, Bruno (Author) ; Pietra, Giovanni Avila Cardoso di (Author) ; Pantaleão, Bruno (Author) ; Parfitt, Rafael (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2025
In: Journal of quantitative criminology
Year: 2025, Volume: 41, Issue: 3, Pages: 345-385
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Check availability: HBZ Gateway
Keywords:
Brazil
Cannabis legalization
Drug Trafficking
Economics of crime
Quasi-experimental
Uruguay
Description
Summary:ObjectivesDrug prohibition plays a pivotal role in shaping modern criminal markets and justice systems, significantly contributing to the prison populations of Western countries. The drug trade fuels global networks of corruption and violence, especially in transit countries. This study examines how these networks exploit shifts in drug markets, prompting diversification and intensification of general illegal activities. We investigate the geographic spillover effects from changes in drug markets by analyzing drug seizures in Brazil following Uruguay’s recreational cannabis legalization (RCL).MethodsTo establish a causal relationship, we employ a Difference-in-Differences approach, leveraging variations in distance from the Uruguay border across Brazilian municipalities. We compare non-drug and drug-related crimes, including cannabis and cocaine seizures, before and after the enactment of RCL.ResultsOur findings indicate that Uruguay’s RCL led to an increase in both cannabis and cocaine seizures in Brazilian municipalities closer to the border. We also observe a corresponding rise in violence and property crimes.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that Uruguay’s RCL contributed to the intensification of illegal trade networks, driven by changes in the nearby drug market. Our results suggest that RCL is associated with the expansion of these networks, optimized resource allocation, increased cocaine seizures, and a rise in vehicle crimes near the Brazilian border.
ISSN:1573-7799
DOI:10.1007/s10940-025-09603-z