RT Article
T1 Trajectories of Change in Acute Dynamic Risk Ratings and Associated Risk for Recidivism in Paroled New Zealanders: A Joint Latent Class Modelling Approach
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 40
IS 2
SP 215
OP 255
A1 Stone, Ariel G.
A2 Lloyd, Caleb
A2 Spivak, Benjamin L.
A2 Papalia, Nina L.
A2 Serin, Ralph C.
LA English
YR 2024
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1925590828
AB ObjectivesPrior studies indicate risk for recidivism declines with time spent in the community post-incarceration. The current study tested whether declines in risk scores occurred uniformly for all individuals in a community corrections sample or whether distinct groups could be identified on the basis of similar trajectories of change in acute risk and time to recidivism. We additionally tested whether accounting for group heterogeneity improved prospective prediction of recidivism.MethodsThis study used longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 92,104 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by community corrections supervision officers). We applied joint latent class modelling (JLCM) to model group trajectories of change in acute risk following re-entry while accounting for data missing due to recidivism (i.e., missing not at random). We compared accuracy of dynamic predictions based on the selected joint latent class model to an equivalent joint model with no latent class structure.ResultsWe identified four trajectory groups of acute dynamic risk. Groups were consistently estimated across a split sample. Trajectories differed in direction and degree of change but using the latent class structure did not improve discrimination when predicting recidivism.ConclusionsThere may be significant heterogeneity in how individuals’ assessed level of acute risk changes following re-entry, but determining risk for recidivism should not be based on probable group membership. JLCM revealed heterogeneity in early re-entry unlikely to be observed using traditional analytic approaches.
K1 Class
K1 Criminology
K1 Criminology Theory
K1 Dynamic risk factors
K1 Ethnicity
K1 Gender and Crime
K1 Group trajectory modelling
K1 Joint latent class models
K1 Quantitative Criminology
K1 Re-entry
K1 Recidivism
K1 Recidivism prediction
K1 Risk Factors
DO 10.1007/s10940-022-09566-5