Trajectories of Change in Acute Dynamic Risk Ratings and Associated Risk for Recidivism in Paroled New Zealanders: A Joint Latent Class Modelling Approach
ObjectivesPrior studies indicate risk for recidivism declines with time spent in the community post-incarceration. The current study tested whether declines in risk scores occurred uniformly for all individuals in a community corrections sample or whether distinct groups could be identified on the b...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Contributors: | ; ; ; |
| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
|
| In: |
Journal of quantitative criminology
Year: 2024, Volume: 40, Issue: 2, Pages: 215-255 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (kostenfrei) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
|
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000naa a22000002c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1925590828 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20250514094422.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 250514s2024 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1007/s10940-022-09566-5 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1925590828 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1925590828 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 2,1 |2 ssgn | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Stone, Ariel G. |e VerfasserIn |0 (orcid)0000-0002-9299-7463 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Trajectories of Change in Acute Dynamic Risk Ratings and Associated Risk for Recidivism in Paroled New Zealanders: A Joint Latent Class Modelling Approach |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2024 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a ObjectivesPrior studies indicate risk for recidivism declines with time spent in the community post-incarceration. The current study tested whether declines in risk scores occurred uniformly for all individuals in a community corrections sample or whether distinct groups could be identified on the basis of similar trajectories of change in acute risk and time to recidivism. We additionally tested whether accounting for group heterogeneity improved prospective prediction of recidivism.MethodsThis study used longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 92,104 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by community corrections supervision officers). We applied joint latent class modelling (JLCM) to model group trajectories of change in acute risk following re-entry while accounting for data missing due to recidivism (i.e., missing not at random). We compared accuracy of dynamic predictions based on the selected joint latent class model to an equivalent joint model with no latent class structure.ResultsWe identified four trajectory groups of acute dynamic risk. Groups were consistently estimated across a split sample. Trajectories differed in direction and degree of change but using the latent class structure did not improve discrimination when predicting recidivism.ConclusionsThere may be significant heterogeneity in how individuals’ assessed level of acute risk changes following re-entry, but determining risk for recidivism should not be based on probable group membership. JLCM revealed heterogeneity in early re-entry unlikely to be observed using traditional analytic approaches. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Class | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Criminology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Criminology Theory | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Dynamic risk factors | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ethnicity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gender and Crime | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Group trajectory modelling | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Joint latent class models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Quantitative Criminology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Re-entry | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Recidivism | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Recidivism prediction | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk Factors | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lloyd, Caleb |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1314272225 |0 (DE-627)1876730323 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Spivak, Benjamin L. |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Papalia, Nina L. |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Serin, Ralph C. |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1093573554 |0 (DE-627)853785716 |0 (DE-576)183666879 |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Journal of quantitative criminology |d New York, NY [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V., 1985 |g 40(2024), 2, Seite 215-255 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)320578003 |w (DE-600)2017241-2 |w (DE-576)104082321 |x 1573-7799 |7 nnas |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:40 |g year:2024 |g number:2 |g pages:215-255 |
| 856 | |u https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10940-022-09566-5.pdf |x unpaywall |z Vermutlich kostenfreier Zugang |h publisher [open (via crossref license)] | ||
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-022-09566-5 |x Resolving-System |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| ELC | |a 1 | ||
| LOK | |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 | ||
| LOK | |0 001 4724170301 | ||
| LOK | |0 003 DE-627 | ||
| LOK | |0 004 1925590828 | ||
| LOK | |0 005 20250514103342 | ||
| LOK | |0 008 250514||||||||||||||||ger||||||| | ||
| LOK | |0 040 |a DE-2619 |c DE-627 |d DE-2619 | ||
| LOK | |0 092 |o n | ||
| LOK | |0 852 |a DE-2619 | ||
| LOK | |0 852 1 |9 00 | ||
| LOK | |0 866 |x zotak: Nacherfasst, da nicht in zota-Einspielung | ||
| LOK | |0 935 |a krzo |a tiep | ||
| OAS | |a 1 | ||
| ORI | |a WA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw | ||
