RT Article
T1 Do high value target strikes reduce cartel-related violence? An empirical assessment of crime trends in Tijuana, Mexico
JF Trends in organized crime
VO 27
IS 4
SP 429
OP 452
A1 Del Rio, Juan
LA English
YR 2024
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1913615138
AB High-value target strikes–the practice of apprehending or lethally targeting high-ranking members of transnational criminal organizations–has become a frequently used tactic of U.S. and Mexican authorities to combat drug trafficking organizations. The study focuses on the unintentional outcomes of this policy by using an interrupted times-series AutoRegressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) study design combined with a paired sample t-test, to analyze the effect that the arrest of Arellano Felix Organization leader, Luis Fernando Sánchez Arellano, and subsequent arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo), had on levels of homicide in Tijuana, Mexico from 2012 to 2017. Findings revealed that the capture of both cartel leaders led to a statistically significant increase in the number of homicides in Tijuana, as the apprehension of these leaders allowed for the arrival of rival organizations in the Tijuana trafficking corridor. The appearance of competing groups in Tijuana prompted turf battles between organizations to develop.
K1 Second order effects
K1 Sinaloa cartel
K1 Tijuana cartel
K1 Arellano Felix Organization
K1 AFO
K1 Drug trafficking organization
K1 Homicide
K1 Kingpin
K1 High value target strike
DO 10.1007/s12117-021-09444-9