RT Article
T1 Using a reassessment framework to determine critical case management needs: DRAOR improves on LS/RNR’s predictive discrimination of short-term recidivism
JF Psychology, crime & law
VO 30
IS 9
SP 1180
OP 1200
A1 Coulter, Darcy J.
A2 Lloyd, Caleb
LA English
YR 2024
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1906275866
AB Two core tasks within community corrections are estimating recidivism risk and providing supportive case management to supervised clients. Recent studies demonstrated that regularly reassessing dynamic risk factors enhances the predictive accuracy of case management tools that identify immediate client needs. Using a large sample (N = 2076) of adults on parole in an Australian jurisdiction, we evaluated whether reassessed versus initial scores from Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (LS/RNR) and Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) better discriminated recidivists from non-recidivists. Using Cox regression survival analyses, we modelled risk for general and violent recidivism. Updated DRAOR scores incrementally predicted recidivism beyond initial scores, particularly showing that DRAOR Acute scores can identify needs related to immediate recidivism risk. Models combining LS/RNR criminal history scores with updated DRAOR Acute scores demonstrated the greatest predictive validity, suggesting case managers must consider acute dynamic risk factors within the context of long-term risk. We suggest that attending to criminal history, criminogenic needs and acute dynamic risk factors are each necessary for effective case management, with specific attention toward regularly reassessed acute dynamic risk factors among people identified with higher long-term risk and needs.
K1 Recidivism
K1 Dynamic risk
K1 LS/RNR
K1 reassessment
K1 DRAOR
DO 10.1080/1068316X.2023.2166506