RT Article
T1 Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy
JF OR insight
VO 11
SP 3
OP 9
A1 Grove, Peter
A2 MacLeod, John
A2 Godfrey, David
LA English
YR 1998
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1871769892
AB This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison.
DO 10.1057/ori.1998.2