Forecasting the prison population - predicting the consequences of sentencing policy
This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology i...
Authors: | ; ; |
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Format: | Electronic Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
1998
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In: |
OR insight
Year: 1998, Volume: 11, Pages: 3-9 |
Online Access: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
Journals Online & Print: | |
Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
Summary: | This paper describes the development of a new methodology for making ‘long’ term projections of the Prison Population. The methodology is based on a flow model of offenders in and out of prison, allowing the effect of changes in court sentencing policy to be predicted. The heart of the methodology is a new theory of offending, allowing the number of first time offenders to be predicted and also the recidivism of those released from prison. |
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ISSN: | 1759-0477 |
DOI: | 10.1057/ori.1998.2 |