A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affec...

Full description

Saved in:  
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bartolucci, Francesco (Author)
Contributors: Pennoni, Fulvia ; Francis, Brian
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2007
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society
Year: 2007, Volume: 170, Issue: 1, Pages: 115-132
Online Access: Volltext (Verlag)
Journals Online & Print:
Drawer...
Check availability: HBZ Gateway
Keywords:

MARC

LEADER 00000naa a2200000 4500
001 187176890X
003 DE-627
005 20231201113838.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 231201s2007 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
035 |a (DE-627)187176890X 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP187176890X 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
084 |a 2,1  |2 ssgn 
100 1 |a Bartolucci, Francesco  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1029171084  |0 (DE-627)732547059  |0 (DE-576)37702385X  |4 aut 
109 |a Bartolucci, Francesco 
245 1 2 |a A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity  |c Francesco Bartolucci, Fulvia Pennoni, Brian Francis 
264 1 |c 2007 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affecting the initial and the transition probabilities of the latent process. We also show some simplifications which reduce the number of parameters substantially; we include a Rasch-like parameterization of the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process and a constraint of partial homogeneity of the latent Markov chain. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we outline an EM algorithm based on recursions known in the hidden Markov literature, which make the estimation feasible also when the number of time occasions is large. Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities. 
650 4 |a Classification 
650 4 |a criminal trajectories 
650 4 |a EM algorithm 
650 4 |a latent class model 
650 4 |a Markov chains 
650 4 |a Rasch model 
700 1 |a Pennoni, Fulvia  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)102917153X  |0 (DE-627)732547954  |0 (DE-576)377052132  |4 aut 
700 1 |a Francis, Brian  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1136590579  |0 (DE-627)893150843  |0 (DE-576)487193407  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |a Royal Statistical Society  |t Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society  |d Oxford : Wiley-Blackwell, 1949  |g 170(2007), 1, Seite 115-132  |w (DE-627)129483281  |w (DE-600)204794-9  |w (DE-576)014867087  |x 0964-1998  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:170  |g year:2007  |g number:1  |g pages:115-132 
787 0 8 |i Forschungsdaten  |a Großbritannien. Home Office  |t Offenders index cohort data, 1953-1997  |d Colchester : UK Data Service, 2018  |w (DE-627)1871765854 
856 4 0 |u https://www.jstor.org/stable/4623137  |x Verlag  |x Resolving-System 
936 u w |d 170  |j 2007  |e 1  |h 115-132 
951 |a AR 
ELC |a 1 
LOK |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 
LOK |0 001 4424132676 
LOK |0 003 DE-627 
LOK |0 004 187176890X 
LOK |0 005 20231201113844 
LOK |0 008 231201||||||||||||||||ger||||||| 
LOK |0 040   |a DE-2619  |c DE-627  |d DE-2619 
LOK |0 092   |o n 
LOK |0 852   |a DE-2619 
LOK |0 852 1  |9 00 
ORI |a WA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw