RT Article
T1 Predicting revolt: fragility indexes and the level of violence and instability in the Arab Spring
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 29
IS 3
SP 483
OP 508
A1 Buterbaugh, Kevin Neil
A1 Calin, Costel
A1 Marchant-Shapiro, Theresa
A2 Calin, Costel
A2 Marchant-Shapiro, Theresa
LA English
YR 2017
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1871439329
AB This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.
NO Gesehen am 28.11.2023
NO Published online: 25 Jul 2015
K1 Arab Awakening
K1 Arab Spring
K1 Political Violence
K1 Protest
K1 state fragility
K1 State Fragility Indexes
DO 10.1080/09546553.2015.1049343