RT Article
T1 Adversary group decision-making regarding choice of attack methods: expecting the unexpected
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 29
IS 4
SP 713
OP 734
A1 Knight, Sarah E.
A1 Keane, Carys
A1 Murphy, Amy
A2 Keane, Carys
A2 Murphy, Amy
LA English
YR 2017
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1871097096
AB Anticipating whether an adversary group will continue to use their usual (“conventional”), expected attack methods is important for military and counterterrorism practitioners tasked with protecting the security of others. Conventional attack methods are by their nature easier to plan and prepare for whilst “innovative” methods may take those responsible for security and counterterrorism by surprise and, as such, may have more impact and more serious consequences. The present study aimed to develop understanding of how, when, and why adversary groups might decide to use conventional attack methods or opt to do something innovative instead. A literature review was conducted and findings were applied to develop a thorough understanding of the decision-making process that underlies an adversary group's choice of attack method. Identified are three stages preceding the execution of an attack: a) “strategic direction”; b) “incubation”; and c) “planning and preparation,” plus “overarching” and “contextual” factors that can influence the process at each stage. It is suggested that it is these factors and how they influence decision-making that result in innovative methods being used to execute an attack, or convention prevailing. Findings can aid practitioners and policy-makers in counterterrorism, security, and law enforcement, to support their understanding, evaluation, and countering of current and future threats.
NO Gesehen am 24.11.2023
NO Published online: 09 Oct 2015
K1 adversary group decision-making
K1 attack methods
K1 attack planning
K1 Counterterrorism
K1 Innovation
K1 malevolent creativity
DO 10.1080/09546553.2015.1064398