RT Article
T1 Leadership matters: the effects of targeted killings on militant group tactics
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 29
IS 5
SP 830
OP 851
A1 Abrahms, Max
A2 Mierau, Jochen
LA English
YR 2017
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1870764544
AB Targeted killings have become a central component of counterterrorism strategy. In response to the unprecedented prevalence of this strategy around the world, numerous empirical studies have recently examined whether “decapitating” militant groups with targeted killings is strategically effective. This study builds on that research program by examining the impact of targeted killings on militant group tactical decision-making. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in the attack patterns of militant groups conditional on whether a government’s targeted killing attempt succeeded against them operationally. In both the Afghanistan-Pakistan and Israel-West Bank-Gaza Strip theaters, targeted killings significantly alter the nature of militant group violence. When their leaderships are degraded with a successful strike, militant groups become far less discriminate in their target selection by redirecting their violence from military to civilian targets. We then analyze several potential causal mechanisms to account for these results and find strongest evidence that targeted killings tend to promote indiscriminate organizational violence by empowering lower level members with weaker civilian restraint.
NO Gesehen am 21.11.2023
NO Published online: 23 Sep 2015
K1 Drones
K1 leadership decapitation
K1 militant groups
K1 Targeted killing
DO 10.1080/09546553.2015.1069671