Next Hit Predictor - Self-exciting Risk Modeling for Predicting Next Locations of Serial Crimes

Our goal is to predict the location of the next crime in a crime series, based on the identified previous offenses in the series. We build a predictive model called Next Hit Predictor (NHP) that finds the most likely location of the next serial crime via a carefully designed risk model. The risk mod...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:  
Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. VerfasserIn: Li, Yunyi (VerfasserIn)
Beteiligte: Wang, Tong
Medienart: Elektronisch Buch
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: 2018
In:Jahr: 2018
Online-Zugang: Volltext (kostenfrei)
Verfügbarkeit prüfen: HBZ Gateway
Schlagwörter:

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a22000002c 4500
001 1865846015
003 DE-627
005 20250114054859.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 231017s2018 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
035 |a (DE-627)1865846015 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1865846015 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
084 |a 2,1  |2 ssgn 
100 1 |a Li, Yunyi  |e VerfasserIn  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Next Hit Predictor - Self-exciting Risk Modeling for Predicting Next Locations of Serial Crimes 
264 1 |c 2018 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a Our goal is to predict the location of the next crime in a crime series, based on the identified previous offenses in the series. We build a predictive model called Next Hit Predictor (NHP) that finds the most likely location of the next serial crime via a carefully designed risk model. The risk model follows the paradigm of a self-exciting point process which consists of a background crime risk and triggered risks stimulated by previous offenses in the series. Thus, NHP creates a risk map for a crime series at hand. To train the risk model, we formulate a convex learning objective that considers pairwise rankings of locations and use stochastic gradient descent to learn the optimal parameters. Next Hit Predictor incorporates both spatial-temporal features and geographical characteristics of prior crime locations in the series. Next Hit Predictor has demonstrated promising results on decades' worth of serial crime data collected by the Crime Analysis Unit of the Cambridge Police Department in Massachusetts, USA 
650 4 |a Research 
700 1 |a Wang, Tong  |e VerfasserIn  |4 aut 
856 4 0 |u http://arxiv.org/abs/1812.05224  |x Verlag  |z kostenfrei  |3 Volltext 
935 |a mkri 
951 |a BO 
ELC |a 1 
LOK |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 
LOK |0 001 4390884417 
LOK |0 003 DE-627 
LOK |0 004 1865846015 
LOK |0 005 20231017043724 
LOK |0 008 231017||||||||||||||||ger||||||| 
LOK |0 035   |a (DE-2619)CORE54180495 
LOK |0 040   |a DE-2619  |c DE-627  |d DE-2619 
LOK |0 092   |o n 
LOK |0 852   |a DE-2619 
LOK |0 852 1  |9 00 
LOK |0 935   |a core 
OAS |a 1 
ORI |a SA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw