Sources of Conventional and Guerrilla Strategies in Ethno-Territorial Civil Wars

In ethno-territorial civil wars, which factors influence whether rebels choose and retain conventional warfare as their primary military strategy throughout the conflict, or whether they use guerrilla warfare as a primary strategy during periods judged to be less advantageous to conventional warfare...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Horowitz, Shale Asher 1965- (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2023
In: Terrorism and political violence
Year: 2023, Volume: 35, Issue: 7, Pages: 1451-1467
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Keywords:
relative power
leadership preferences
conventional warfare
guerrilla warfare
Ethnic civil wars

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520 |a In ethno-territorial civil wars, which factors influence whether rebels choose and retain conventional warfare as their primary military strategy throughout the conflict, or whether they use guerrilla warfare as a primary strategy during periods judged to be less advantageous to conventional warfare? The existing literature almost exclusively emphasizes relative power as the determining factor: rebels use guerrilla warfare because they typically lack the capability to fight conventional wars effectively against states. I find some support for this hypothesis: ethno-territorial rebels are much more likely to fight exclusively conventional wars when external states intervene conventionally on the rebel side. I also find that rebel leaders with more intense, far-reaching nationalist goals are more likely to employ guerrilla warfare as a primary war strategy. For such leaders, the higher costs of using guerrilla methods pending an eventual transition to conventional warfare are made more acceptable by a higher valuation of the far-reaching gains delivered by military victory—gains expected to be made more likely by interim periods in which guerrilla warfare is the primary strategy. Turning to other factors, I do not find that status quo conditions or a high level of state democracy have a significant influence. 
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