RT Article
T1 Does Risk Change Simply Indicate Current Risk for Recidivism or Something More? A Review of the Predictive Value of Intraindividual Change
JF Criminal justice and behavior
VO 50
IS 8
SP 1102
OP 1119
A1 Davies, Simon T.
A1 Lloyd, Caleb D.
A1 Polaschek, Devon L. L.
A2 Lloyd, Caleb D.
A2 Polaschek, Devon L. L.
LA English
YR 2023
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1852751185
AB In this review article, we critically analyze the relationship between change in dynamic risk (i.e., intraindividual change) and recidivism. We start by reviewing the empirical evidence, which indicates intraindividual change is associated with recidivism. However, we highlight how the predictive value of change scores needs careful interpretation. The finding that change scores predict incrementally over baseline scores may simply reflect the improved accuracy of a more recent assessment. Alternatively, the degree of change preceding the reassessment may be relevant in addition to the current level of dynamic risk at reassessment. We propose theoretical reasons why past change may be relevant for prediction beyond current risk scores. Furthermore, the empirical evidence suggests prior change may contain information not solely reflected within the current risk score, but the current evidence has several limitations. Due to the important implications for correctional practice, we encourage further research that more directly examines this question.
K1 Risk assessment
K1 Rehabilitation
K1 Recidivism
K1 Prediction
K1 Dynamic risk
DO 10.1177/00938548231174905