Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC-99: a Bayes analysis

Purpose. This study applies a Bayes analysis to the probability of a particular STATIC-99 score and its associated re-offence probability with recidivating for a sexual offence. We examine this probability over three time frames: within 5 years; within 10 years; and within 15 years. Methods. This st...

Full description

Saved in:  
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Beauregard, Eric (Author)
Contributors: Mieczkowski, Thomas M.
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2009
In: Legal and criminological psychology
Year: 2009, Volume: 14, Issue: 2, Pages: 187-200
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Journals Online & Print:
Drawer...
Check availability: HBZ Gateway

MARC

LEADER 00000caa a22000002 4500
001 1847188966
003 DE-627
005 20230616155036.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 230602s2009 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a 10.1348/135532508X330994  |2 doi 
035 |a (DE-627)1847188966 
035 |a (DE-599)KXP1847188966 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rda 
041 |a eng 
084 |a 2,1  |2 ssgn 
100 1 |a Beauregard, Eric  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1117922561  |0 (DE-627)871716518  |0 (DE-576)255823479  |4 aut 
109 |a Beauregard, Eric 
245 1 0 |a Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC-99  |b a Bayes analysis 
264 1 |c 2009 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a Computermedien  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Online-Ressource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a Purpose. This study applies a Bayes analysis to the probability of a particular STATIC-99 score and its associated re-offence probability with recidivating for a sexual offence. We examine this probability over three time frames: within 5 years; within 10 years; and within 15 years. Methods. This study was conducted using the same data from Hanson and Thornton (1999). This dataset is constituted from four different samples: Institut Philippe Pinel (Canada) sample; Millbrook Recidivism Study (Canada) sample; Oak Ridge Division of the Penetanguishene Mental Health Center (Canada) sample; and Her Majesty's Prison Service (UK) sample. The final sample for which sufficient information was available to score the STATIC-99 includes 1,086 sexual offenders. Bayes statistic has been used to analyse the data. Results. Results are consistent with the STATIC-99 as a useful assessment tool. The Bayes-generated probabilities as well as odds ratios show a consistent increase in increased likelihood of re-offence as the score value increases. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis of the STATIC-99 shows that this method is very interesting in the context of risk assessment tools. This approach to risk assessment instruments may be more appropriate in the communication of analytic results as it can offer clinicians a combination of probabilities and likelihood ratios resulting a readily accessible profile of risk. 
700 1 |a Mieczkowski, Thomas M.  |d 1947-  |e VerfasserIn  |0 (DE-588)1145651011  |0 (DE-627)1006843310  |0 (DE-576)166685003  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |t Legal and criminological psychology  |d Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 1996  |g 14(2009), 2, Seite 187-200  |h Online-Ressource  |w (DE-627)320441695  |w (DE-600)2005001-X  |w (DE-576)090886615  |x 2044-8333  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:14  |g year:2009  |g number:2  |g pages:187-200 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.org/10.1348/135532508X330994  |x Resolving-System  |z lizenzpflichtig  |3 Volltext 
856 4 0 |u https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1348/135532508X330994  |x Verlag  |z lizenzpflichtig  |3 Volltext 
936 u w |d 14  |j 2009  |e 2  |h 187-200 
951 |a AR 
ELC |a 1 
LOK |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 
LOK |0 001 4328684833 
LOK |0 003 DE-627 
LOK |0 004 1847188966 
LOK |0 005 20230602084143 
LOK |0 008 230602||||||||||||||||ger||||||| 
LOK |0 040   |a DE-2619  |c DE-627  |d DE-2619 
LOK |0 092   |o n 
LOK |0 852   |a DE-2619 
LOK |0 852 1  |9 00 
LOK |0 935   |a krzo 
ORI |a SA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw