RT Article
T1 Development of an actuarial static risk model suitable for automatic scoring for predicting juvenile recidivism
JF Legal and criminological psychology
VO 20
IS 2
SP 288
OP 305
A1 McKinlay, Audrey
A1 James, Victoria L.
A1 Grace, Randolph C.
A2 James, Victoria L.
A2 Grace, Randolph C.
LA English
YR 2015
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1847029256
AB Objectives To test the feasibility of an actuarial model for juvenile offending suitable for automatic scoring. Design We identified a nationally representative sample of 936 young persons aged 13-17 (745 male, 191 female) who received a juvenile justice intake in 2002 in New Zealand. Methods Best-subsets logistic regression and a formal model selection criterion were used to generate a predictive model for reoffending, and a conservative estimate of accuracy was obtained with cross-validation. Results Recidivism during a 1-year follow-up was significantly higher for male (60.8%) compared to female (46.6%) delinquents. The model showed that young persons who were male, younger at their first social welfare intake, and had more prior court dates and a greater frequency of contact with police, were more likely to re-offend. The accuracy of the model was moderately high (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .710). A model developed specifically for the female cases failed to provide a significant increase in predictive accuracy. Conclusions These results demonstrate the feasibility of an actuarial model for juvenile offending that is suitable for automatic scoring. Although male delinquents pose a higher absolute risk of juvenile offending than female delinquents, a common set of items related to history of contact with police and social welfare agencies provide a similarly accurate measure of relative risk for both sexes.
K1 actuarial model
K1 Adolescence
K1 antisocial behaviour
K1 Delinquency
K1 Female
K1 Recidivism
K1 Risk assessment
DO 10.1111/lcrp.12024