RT Article
T1 Silver Lining? The Effects of Epidemics on Terrorist Groups
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 35
IS 4
SP 908
OP 925
A1 Avdan, Nazli
A2 Piazza, James A.
A2 Soules, Michael J.
LA English
YR 2023
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1844244059
AB In this study we examine the effects of epidemics on terrorist groups’ attack capacities. We consider two theoretical relationships between epidemics and terrorist groups. By weakening government counterterrorism defenses and increasing popular grievances, epidemics can provide a strategic environment that is conducive to terrorist groups, enhancing their capacity to commit more attacks, yield higher casualties and launch more logistically complex attacks. Conversely, epidemics can impair the abilities of terrorist groups to launch attacks by eroding group capacity and access to resources while incentivizing the state to increase its surveillance and policing capabilities. We test these two competing arguments using a database of over 620 terrorist groups for the period of 1970 to 2016. Our findings support the second argument. Terrorist groups based or operating in countries experiencing more and more intense epidemics commit fewer attacks, generally produce fewer casualties, commit a lower ratio of transnational to domestic attacks and less frequently use multi-mode attacks. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings.
K1 terrorist tactics
K1 epidemics
K1 Natural Disasters
K1 terrorist groups
K1 Terrorism
DO 10.1080/09546553.2021.1987894