RT Article
T1 Triggers of Escalations in Violence Against Civilians by Non-State Actors in Africa
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 35
IS 3
SP 658
OP 676
A1 Nyseth Nzitatira, Hollie
A2 Robinson, Amanda Lea
A2 Saraswati, Mini
LA English
YR 2023
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1843246864
AB Although past research has addressed why civilians are targeted, we know less about why non-state actors escalate violence against civilians at particular times. This article seeks to identify the events that trigger spikes in violence against civilians committed by non-state actors. We employ an innovative method to identify twenty-four such escalations in Africa committed by twenty different non-state groups between 1989 and 2015. Rigorous case studies reveal three major types of triggers, including situations in which (1) groups lose relative power, (2) groups gain relative power, and (3) opponents attack civilians. Specifically, we find that opponent military advances—which results in a relative loss of power for the non-state actor—are the most common trigger. More broadly, 75 percent of all escalations are tied to a group’s relative loss in power. These results improve understandings of civilian targeting by non-state actors and may inform efforts to forecast such violence before it occurs.
K1 Africa
K1 Non-state Actors
K1 Violence
K1 Triggers
DO 10.1080/09546553.2021.1967935