What happens when the police go on strike?: homicides increase : evidence from Ceará, Brazil
This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing mo...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Format: | Electronic Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2022
|
In: |
Global crime
Year: 2022, Volume: 23, Issue: 4, Pages: 365-391 |
Online Access: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
Journals Online & Print: | |
Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
Keywords: |
MARC
LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | 1837011982 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20231107102044.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 230217s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121 |2 doi | |
035 | |a (DE-627)1837011982 | ||
035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1837011982 | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
084 | |a 2,1 |2 ssgn | ||
100 | 1 | |a Aziani, Alberto |e VerfasserIn |0 (DE-588)1171238886 |0 (DE-627)1040437362 |0 (DE-576)513649093 |4 aut | |
109 | |a Aziani, Alberto | ||
245 | 1 | 0 | |a What happens when the police go on strike? |b homicides increase : evidence from Ceará, Brazil |c Alberto Aziani |
264 | 1 | |c 2022 | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
520 | |a This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides. | ||
650 | 4 | |a Covid-19 | |
650 | 4 | |a Crime forecast | |
650 | 4 | |a De-policing | |
650 | 4 | |a Deterrence | |
650 | 4 | |a Lethal violence | |
650 | 4 | |a Quasi-natural experiment | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Global crime |d London [u.a.] : Taylor & Francis, 2004 |g 23(2022), 4, Seite 365-391 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)477987338 |w (DE-600)2174455-5 |w (DE-576)258360380 |x 1744-0580 |7 nnns |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:23 |g year:2022 |g number:4 |g pages:365-391 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121 |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121 |x Verlag |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
951 | |a AR | ||
ELC | |a 1 | ||
LOK | |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 | ||
LOK | |0 001 4273908859 | ||
LOK | |0 003 DE-627 | ||
LOK | |0 004 1837011982 | ||
LOK | |0 005 20230815113949 | ||
LOK | |0 008 230217||||||||||||||||ger||||||| | ||
LOK | |0 040 |a DE-21-110 |c DE-627 |d DE-21-110 | ||
LOK | |0 092 |o n | ||
LOK | |0 852 |a DE-21-110 | ||
LOK | |0 852 1 |9 00 | ||
LOK | |0 935 |a krzo | ||
ORI | |a SA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw |