RT Article
T1 The global law of terror organization lifespan
JF Terrorism and political violence
VO 32
IS 8
SP 1636
OP 1665
A1 Goldman, Shlomo Ogen
A1 Bar, Leah
A2 Bar, Leah
LA English
YR 2020
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1831278049
AB The study addresses the question of whether there is a global pattern of terror organization (TO) lifespan. Based on two datasets which include hundreds of organizations, we show that there is a global statistical law of TO lifespan distribution. This distribution describes populations of TOs in different contexts of periods, geographical locations, ideologies, etc. The data as a whole, as well as its subpopulations, seem to emerge from an exponential distribution, which is formulated as a mathematical model. This model enables the prediction of TOs’ global population decay rate. The findings were obtained by introducing a novel procedure, which formulates and validates this mathematical law for discrete empirical data. We suggest that human behavior generating informational cascades and a positive feedback loop, which influence the number of core members in a TO, may be the source of this global pattern.
NO Gesehen am 17.01.2023
NO Published online: 08 Aug 2018
K1 Terror organizations
K1 life span
K1 Distribution
K1 Longevity
K1 Survival
DO 10.1080/09546553.2018.1498787