RT Article
T1 Mafia war: simulating conflict escalation in criminal organizations
JF Trends in organized crime
VO 20
IS 1-2
SP 139
OP 178
A1 Neumann, Martin
A2 Lotzmann, Ulf
A2 Troitzsch, Klaus G. 1946-
LA English
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1819140229
AB The paper describes a simulation model of conflict escalation in criminal organizations, investigating conditions of stability and collapse of the organization. As a paradigmatic case, the Sicilian Cosa Nostra provides the background for the formulation of the model assumptions. Cosa Nostra faced two so-called Mafia wars. Outbreak of wars is replicated by the simulation model. Since criminal organizations operate outside the state monopoly of violence, they provide a laboratory for studying war and state in the making: Organizational stability remains dependent on the loyalty of the Mafiosi. Monte-Carlo simulation experiments reveal a constant danger of a Hobbesian war of all against all. A statistical examination of explanatory factors of the distribution of violence shows that minimal differences in the initial conditions open up pathways to the escalation of violence. Central factors for stability are economic prosperity and normative commitment to the organization. Once the economic carrying capacity of the environment is reached, normative binding forces control escalation of violence. However, stability remains precarious and is in constant danger of falling in a trap cycle of revenge. This path-dependent effect is the central mechanism for the escalation of violence.
NO Published: 25 October 2016
NO Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 177-178
K1 Agent-based simulation
K1 Conflict escalation
K1 Violence
K1 Cosa Nostra
K1 Organizational norms
K1 Mafia war
DO 10.1007/s12117-016-9292-1