Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity Assessment Tool (RNR-A) in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service

To appraise the “real-world” implementation of the risk principle, this study examined the predictive validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity assessment in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service. Reconviction rates at 24 months follow-up in a cohort of 2,442 offenders were used to assess calibration...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Bäckström, Peter Johansson (Author) ; Danielsson, Maria (Author) ; Starfelt Sutton, Louise C. (Author) ; Andersson, Dan (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2022
In: The prison journal
Year: 2022, Volume: 102, Issue: 3, Pages: 367-390
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Keywords:
Recidivism
Sweden
Predictive Validity
Risk-need-responsivity
Risk assessment
Description
Summary:To appraise the “real-world” implementation of the risk principle, this study examined the predictive validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity assessment in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service. Reconviction rates at 24 months follow-up in a cohort of 2,442 offenders were used to assess calibration and discrimination indices. Results indicated acceptable predictive accuracy (AUC = .68–.74), with scope for improvement among young adult offenders. The tool's utility was supported foremost by its ability to screen out low-risk offenders, while over-prediction of recidivism among medium- and high-risk offenders calls for more comprehensive assessment to inform the effective planning of rehabilitative service intensity.
ISSN:1552-7522
DOI:10.1177/00328855221095561