RT Article
T1 Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles
JF American journal of criminal justice
VO 46
IS 5
SP 704
OP 727
A1 Campedelli, Gian Maria
A2 Aziani, Alberto
A2 Favarin, Serena
LA English
YR 2021
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/177092518X
AB This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows—from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020—to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.
K1 General Strain Theory
K1 Crime Pattern Theory
K1 Routine Activity Theory
K1 Causal impact
K1 Bayesian Modelling
K1 Coronavirus
DO 10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6