RT Article
T1 Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction
JF Criminal justice and behavior
VO 47
IS 12
SP 1609
OP 1629
A1 Cohen, Thomas H.
A2 Lowenkamp, Christopher Tyson
A2 Bechtel, Kristin
A2 Flores, Anthony W.
LA English
YR 2020
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1770252495
AB In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations provided by the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) instrument. This component of the risk classification process is referred to as the supervision override. While the rationale for allowing overrides is that actuarial scores cannot always capture an individual’s unique characteristics, there is relatively limited literature on the actual effects of overrides on an actuarial tool’s predictive efficacies. This study examines overrides in the federal system by assessing the extent to which risk levels are adjusted through overrides as well as the impact of overrides on the PCRA’s risk prediction effectiveness. Findings show that nearly all overrides lead to an upward risk reclassification, that overrides tend to place substantial numbers of persons under federal supervision (especially those convicted of sex offenses) into the highest supervision categories, and that overrides result in a deterioration of the PCRA’s risk prediction capacities.
K1 Professional discretion
K1 Risk assessment tools
K1 Risk prediction
K1 supervision overrides
DO 10.1177/0093854820953449