RT Article
T1 Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation
JF International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology
VO 65
IS 13/14
SP 1473
OP 1495
A1 Duwe, Grant
LA English
YR 2021
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1770025359
AB As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.
K1 Fairness
K1 Equity
K1 Predictive accuracy
K1 Risk principle
K1 Risk assessment
DO 10.1177/0306624X20986523