RT Article
T1 Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 23
IS 3
SP 201
OP 219
A1 Johnson, Shane D. 1971-
A2 Bernasco, Wim 1961-
A2 Bowers, Kate 1972-
A2 Elffers, H. 1948-
A2 Ratcliffe, Jerry
A2 Rengert, George
A2 Townsley, Michael
LA English
YR 2007
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1764280113
AB Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.
K1 Monte-Carlo simulation
K1 Cross national comparison
K1 Space–time clustering
K1 Burglary risk
DO 10.1007/s10940-007-9025-3