RT Article
T1 The influence of police interventions and alternative income sources on the dynamic process of choosing crime as a career
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 3
IS 3
SP 251
OP 273
A1 Phillips, Llad
A2 Votey, Harold L.
LA English
YR 1987
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1764279255
AB This paper demonstrates how a rational process of choice may be influenced by both deterrence forces and economic opportunities. This choice is modeled by a dynamic (Markov) process which captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. in crime. A key to the results is the introduction of the perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. The analysis shows how this force and the availability, or lack of, economic opportunities or income sources modify transition probabilities. The long-run consequences will be a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime but subsequently revert to crime-free behavior and a smaller subpopulation of individuals who commit a greater share of crime. Empirical evidence is based on data from the New Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys.
K1 crime careers
K1 Income
K1 prior stops
K1 Rational Choice
DO 10.1007/BF01063831