RT Article
T1 Are US Crime Rates Really Unit Root Processes?
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 27
IS 3
SP 299
OP 314
A1 Cook, Jemma
A2 Cook, Steve
LA English
YR 2011
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1764278984
AB Existing research has uncovered little evidence against the hypothesis of US crime rates being unit root processes, despite the uncomfortable implications of this assumption. In light of this, the present paper draws upon noted changes in the temporal patterns of US crime rates since 1960 to undertake an informed approach to testing of the unit root hypothesis which incorporates two potential points of structural change. The results obtained show the unit root hypothesis to be rejected for all classifications of criminal activity examined over the period 1960 to 2007. In addition, the dates of the detected breakpoints are supported by a variety of arguments available in the existing criminology literature concerning alternative determinants of crime and their movements. Interestingly, a difference is observed in the nature of the breaks detected for violent and property crimes. However, potential explanations for this are again found in theoretical arguments available in the criminology literature. Finally, the implications of the current findings for the properties of crime, its subsequent statistical analysis and past and future research are discussed.
K1 Structural change
K1 Unit roots
K1 crime rates
DO 10.1007/s10940-010-9124-4