RT Article
T1 The Effect of Incarceration on Re-Offending: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Pennsylvania
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 29
IS 4
SP 601
OP 642
A1 Nagin, Daniel 1948-
A2 Snodgrass, G. Matthew
LA English
YR 2013
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1764276132
AB Objectives This paper uses a sample of convicted offenders from Pennsylvania to estimate the effect of incarceration on post-release criminality. Methods To do so, we capitalize on a feature of the criminal justice system in Pennsylvania—the county-level randomization of cases to judges. We begin by identifying five counties in which there is substantial variation across judges in the uses of incarceration, but no evidence indicating that the randomization process had failed. The estimated effect of incarceration on rearrest is based on comparison of the rearrest rates of the caseloads of judges with different proclivities for the use of incarceration. Results Using judge as an instrumental variable, we estimate a series of confidence intervals for the effect of incarceration on one year, two year, five year, and ten year rearrest rates. Conclusions On the whole, there is little evidence in our data that incarceration impacts rearrest.
K1 Recidivism
K1 Randomization
K1 instrumental variables
K1 Effect of incarceration
DO 10.1007/s10940-012-9191-9